The future is shaped by the present. To predict what will happen in the future, we need to look at fundamental data and see where resources are being invested now. My approach is to find the shape of the future through the following questions:

1. Where is the money located?
2. Which companies get these money?
3. What projects are these companies investing to?
4. Who are the people involved in these projects? What are their research priorities?
5. What kind of goods will circulate in the future market?

Here is my summary:

Where is the money?

The money that influences the future direction of the world is mainly in investment fund companies.

Funds in the world can be divided into three categories:

• Ultra-large sovereign wealth funds, such as Norway's Government Pension Fund Global with an AUM of $15.7 trillion;
  • The investment composition of ultra-large funds generally includes stocks, fixed-income products such as bonds, real estate, renewable energy, and infrastructure. Stock investments usually account for 20% to 40%, typically investing only in top large-scale tech companies and leading consumer brands in developed markets; fixed-income products and real estate each account for about 10% to 15%; sustainable renewable energy and infrastructure investments account for about 10%; the remainder is invested in private equity or other funds for management.
• Large and medium-sized funds, apart from mixed funds like BlackRock with an AUM of $10 trillion that have the capacity to invest in large-scale regional long-term infrastructure projects, other funds generally invest in financial markets and enterprises. These funds can be divided into hedge funds, private equity funds, and index funds. Their scale is generally in the range of tens to hundreds of billions.
  • Hedge funds: Speculative, highly attentive and sensitive to market dynamics, frequently adjusting investment strategies: long, short, arbitrage, mergers and acquisitions, leverage, etc.; focus only on absolute returns, not on investment subjects. Examples include Bridgewater Associates created by Ray Dalio, Renaissance Technologies, a quantitative investment fund founded by mathematician James Simons, and Soros Fund Management, which indirectly led to the devaluation of Southeast Asian countries' sovereign currencies.
  • Private equity funds: Investment-oriented, investing in specific companies and assets through non-public means, focusing more on long-term investment returns, and usually actively participating in the management and operation of invested enterprises to enhance company value. They have the highest returns, but longer waiting periods and the highest risks.
  • Index funds: Focus on fundamentals and passive income, such as State Street Global Advisors, which issues SPDRs (Standard & Poor's Depositary Receipts).
• Small venture capital funds: AUM generally within tens of billions, familiar ones include Sequoia, SoftBank, Lightspeed Venture Partners, etc. They generally invest in the application layer, with recent focus on AI-driven e-commerce, social networking, education, productivity, and data analysis platforms.

Where is the money invested?

So, where are the fund companies investing their money? Here are a few important conclusions:

• By region, over 50% of the funds are invested in the US market, followed by the UK and Japan;
• In the financial markets, funds are invested in leading tech companies and top consumer brands in developed countries; in regional markets, funds are invested in renewable energy industries, real estate, and infrastructure (such as airports, transportation, energy, satellite communications, etc.);
• The main industry investment layout of funds is in:
  • Artificial Intelligence: Large funds focus on chips, intelligent hardware manufacturing, and industrial internet; small funds focus on the application layer, especially AI-empowered internet e-commerce;
  • Biomedical: Such as new materials combined with biotechnology, gene technology, and new drug development, with particular focus on solutions for cancer, cardiovascular diseases, and diabetes
  • Financial technology: Aimed at promoting financial inclusion and lowering the threshold for financial investment
  • Renewable energy: Industries such as solar energy, nuclear energy, wind energy, etc.

To be continued…

• What projects are these companies investing to?
• Who are the people involved in these projects? What are their research priorities?
• What kind of goods will circulate in the future market?

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